Open Letters to Media Pundits

Dear Chris Matthews,

It's no secret, you say a lot of dumb shit. Unlike some people, I don't believe it's because you're a moron or anything like that. You're not normally offensive in my view. The problem you have isn't that you don't think, it's that you think and speak simultaneously, and when you're doing a lot of hypotheticals, as you are wont to do to, that lands you in hot water. But I forgive you because you have such a childish (childlike? I can't decide which) enthusiasm for politics, for the horse race, and so do I, If I'm perfectly honest with myself, I prefer the media coverage of the elections to the actual policy battles. But can you really blame me? My majors were Art History and (German) Cultural Studies, I'm applying for media studies programs in grad school. Point is, media coverage matters thus, the horse race matters. But I digress.

Looking through a bunch of videos I had not seen on msnbc.com, I find a segment on Joe and Mika's program where you actually said something so succinct and eloquent that I fear you may have stolen someone else's idea. But until I'm proven wrong, you'll get the credit:

If this were a parliamentary system she (Senator Clinton) would go straight to Prime Minister.

Yes.

This is it.

No, really something about this idea has radically changed my view of this election. I'm still a supporter of Senator Clinton, and until the nominee is decided I will be but now I think I've come to the point that I won't be emotionally devastated if she's not the nominee.

What have you, Chris, made me realize? That not being president will not be the end of Senator Clinton's political career. She's a really smart legislator. She will continue to be a really smart legislator.

I tend to believe the best Congresspeople are those who know they will not be president, because they no longer have to care about how their decisions will play out on a national scale. They become much bolder in their actions and rhetoric. Look at Senator Kennedy, look at Senator Durbin, look at Senator Biden. Senator Clinton will get back to work after this, I know it. And she'll join these men as leaders of the party going forward.

After my dual disappointment in 2004, that Governor Dean lost the nomination and Senator Kerry lost the presidency, I don't know if I can get behind Senator Obama with the kind of passion other people in my age bracket can. But I was always comfortable voting for him come the general election. And, for what it's worth, the resentment I feared I would have, yeah, I don't think I'll have it anymore. Sorry, Chris, but I don't get a tingling sensation in my leg when I hear him speak. He doesn't connect with me like it did in 2004 when my parents and I watched the DNC on television together, turned to each other and said, "this man will be president." I cannot go back to that moment, but slowly, bit by bit, I'm getting there.

All I have left to say is:

Thank you, Chris.
Indira

The Math of John McCain

The Republicans have had 32 primaries and caucuses.
Of these, John McCain has won 13
Of these 5 have been in 2004 "Red States" (Arizona, Oklahoma, Missouri, Florida, South Carolina)

This means 38% of the states that John McCain won in the primaries, thus far, are in previous Republican states.

I wouldn't bank on Florida though, I'll give it to him he may pull New Hampshire away from the Dems. But let's be nice

Of the 32 states that have held primaries and caucuses, 20 were Red in 2004

John McCain has won just 5 of the 20 or 25%

Of the 12 states he has won, there would be a hypothetical 225 electoral votes.

Of these 216, 63 come from 2004 Reds, 29%

Now, I'm not saying other Red States aren't going to fall in line behind McCain, but I think this makes it pretty clear why Republican leaders have reason to worry. In all truth, McCain has proven not to be the representative candidate for the party base in states which they can win. (Sorry, Reps, you're probably not getting New York, California, and Illinois.)

Primary Predictions

Woah, way to go super tuesday. That was a wild ride.

I've got lots of things to say on the subject, I'll post this weekend about anything and everything I thought about the big night. Results, punditry, my students' responses. Everything.

But right now I want to make a prediction about what's going to happen next. There are a lot of conditions first.

So for the Dems

Both candidates make it to March 4th. That's the next magic date.
Delegates remain fairly split down the middle.

February 12th is Virginia. On March 4th there are primaries in Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas and Vermont. April 22nd is Pennsylvania.

Howard Dean rounds Clinton and Obama at this point

Case #1 Same candidate wins Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania

If one candidate wins both Ohio and Texas, they will be the top of the ticket. The other candidate gets the VP slot.

Nothing is announced until after Pennsylvania on April 22nd. I am fairly sure if the same person takes both Texas and Ohio, they will also win Pennsylvania.

If this is true, the next day the loser concedes. They have the VP slot.


Case #2 Ohio and Texas split

If same candidate has one either Ohio or Texas and also both Pennsylvania and Virginia


Case #3 Ohio and Texas go to one, Pennsylvania to the other.

If one candidate has Virginia, Ohio and Texas, top of ticket. There is a one week wait before concession occurs.

Case #4 One candidate has Virginia and Texas, the other Ohio and Pennsylvania

Nomination goes to Ohio/Penn

Case #5 One candidate has Texas and Ohio the other Pennsylvania and Virginia *or* One has Texas and Pennsylvania the other Virginia and Ohio

Howard Dean jumps off a cliff

I believe these situations is the only way of getting the "dream ticket." Rather than have to wait all the way till the convention, deals get brokered beforehand. Delegates can't decide this with the proportional rule. I think the outlined plans are the best way for the Dems to save face with everyone and avoid insulting people but still get a nominee at a reasonable time.

Why I love Meet the Press

Why I love Meet the Press:
James Carville and Mary Matalin
Oh my god it does not compute.
And for old people, they're pretty adorable.
They're so strange and this week, Matalin's facial expressions were made of win.

edit:
Also, this is why I'm also in love with Candy Crowley. She writes the *best* posts on the 360 blog.