The Math of John McCain

The Republicans have had 32 primaries and caucuses.
Of these, John McCain has won 13
Of these 5 have been in 2004 "Red States" (Arizona, Oklahoma, Missouri, Florida, South Carolina)

This means 38% of the states that John McCain won in the primaries, thus far, are in previous Republican states.

I wouldn't bank on Florida though, I'll give it to him he may pull New Hampshire away from the Dems. But let's be nice

Of the 32 states that have held primaries and caucuses, 20 were Red in 2004

John McCain has won just 5 of the 20 or 25%

Of the 12 states he has won, there would be a hypothetical 225 electoral votes.

Of these 216, 63 come from 2004 Reds, 29%

Now, I'm not saying other Red States aren't going to fall in line behind McCain, but I think this makes it pretty clear why Republican leaders have reason to worry. In all truth, McCain has proven not to be the representative candidate for the party base in states which they can win. (Sorry, Reps, you're probably not getting New York, California, and Illinois.)