My dad is in ICU. I flew in to Chicago, as planed months ago, on Saturday evening. Sunday morning we were in the hospital.

He has a perforated colon that they cannot patch.

I spent the night with my mom in his room. We're taking out the breathing tube in about an hour and a half. He doesn't need it though, he should be able to breathe on his own, nothing is wrong with his lungs. He just had it in overnight to make everything easier on him after the surgery that didn't work.

When Germany and US Politics Collide

So this story is several weeks old now. But at the primary season may be drawing to a close, this may be as good a time as ever to write about it.

I have a group of 8th graders who I actually really adore. I don't run lessons with them, only assist in their classroom once a week. But they're always really excited to see me and call me Ms. Neill (instead of Mrs. Neill, Indira, Ms. O'Neil, Mrs. O'Neil...the list goes on). They're actually pretty good kids, though I couldn't imagine having to control them by myself because they're so high energy.

They all know about the primaries in the US and who Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are. One of them even knew the name John McCain, but nothing about him. Their assignment for that day was to split into 2 groups and come up with 'campaign strategies' for Clinton or Obama. Really just though, reasons someone should vote for one or the other. Predictably, most of the girls wanted to be on Team Clinton, the boys, Obama.

But not this one girl. She absolutely refused to be on the Clinton side and absolutely had to write for Obama. She stood up and stormed to the other side of the room, leaving the other girls behind. It should obviously be mentioned that she is the only Black student in the class. Actually, my students are a pretty diverse mix of Western and Eastern European, Turkish, Indian and East Asian kids. But there are remarkably few African students at the school. While I do not know for certain, this girl in particular probably has one Caucasian parent and one African parent, or maybe her parents moved from America to Germany or something. Basically, she looks mixed race and not like the students who have two parents from Africa.

I found it really remarkable that in the 8th grade, where boys against girls is the defining nature of their social interactions, she identified so very strongly with her race as to cross over enemy lines. I should also say that generally, students don't seem to form cliques based on race either. You don't see the students of Turkish decent in one corner and the Europeans in another. But it is also of note that I teach at a very middle class school, virtually all my students were born in Germany and their parents have white-collar jobs. It's considered the best school in Bremen.

But, still, she absolutely had to side with Obama.

When asked to give a reason why Obama should be the nominee she said something like "Well, Black people were slaves. So he should now get a chance. He would be a symbol." The teacher told her that none of Obama's ancestors were slaves so that wasn't a good reason. But the part about him being a symbol was good.

I really wish I could see inside this girl's head. Why this American presidential race resonates with her in such a strong way, whereas her being Black appears not to alter her interaction with schoolmates. She is by far in the minority when it comes to ethnicity, but why is it here that it shows itself so strongly? Why in the 8th grade does this cause her to break ranks with her gender and cross over?

Perhaps with non-American children, that whole question of Race vs. Gender could actually be addressed in a really interesting way.

Oh, and it was hilarious because literally, most of the discussion did become "Change!" "Experience!" "Change!" "Experience!"

And then there was the one girl who thought that Hillary should get to be president because her husband cheated on her.

Open Letters to Media Pundits

Dear Chris Matthews,

It's no secret, you say a lot of dumb shit. Unlike some people, I don't believe it's because you're a moron or anything like that. You're not normally offensive in my view. The problem you have isn't that you don't think, it's that you think and speak simultaneously, and when you're doing a lot of hypotheticals, as you are wont to do to, that lands you in hot water. But I forgive you because you have such a childish (childlike? I can't decide which) enthusiasm for politics, for the horse race, and so do I, If I'm perfectly honest with myself, I prefer the media coverage of the elections to the actual policy battles. But can you really blame me? My majors were Art History and (German) Cultural Studies, I'm applying for media studies programs in grad school. Point is, media coverage matters thus, the horse race matters. But I digress.

Looking through a bunch of videos I had not seen on msnbc.com, I find a segment on Joe and Mika's program where you actually said something so succinct and eloquent that I fear you may have stolen someone else's idea. But until I'm proven wrong, you'll get the credit:

If this were a parliamentary system she (Senator Clinton) would go straight to Prime Minister.

Yes.

This is it.

No, really something about this idea has radically changed my view of this election. I'm still a supporter of Senator Clinton, and until the nominee is decided I will be but now I think I've come to the point that I won't be emotionally devastated if she's not the nominee.

What have you, Chris, made me realize? That not being president will not be the end of Senator Clinton's political career. She's a really smart legislator. She will continue to be a really smart legislator.

I tend to believe the best Congresspeople are those who know they will not be president, because they no longer have to care about how their decisions will play out on a national scale. They become much bolder in their actions and rhetoric. Look at Senator Kennedy, look at Senator Durbin, look at Senator Biden. Senator Clinton will get back to work after this, I know it. And she'll join these men as leaders of the party going forward.

After my dual disappointment in 2004, that Governor Dean lost the nomination and Senator Kerry lost the presidency, I don't know if I can get behind Senator Obama with the kind of passion other people in my age bracket can. But I was always comfortable voting for him come the general election. And, for what it's worth, the resentment I feared I would have, yeah, I don't think I'll have it anymore. Sorry, Chris, but I don't get a tingling sensation in my leg when I hear him speak. He doesn't connect with me like it did in 2004 when my parents and I watched the DNC on television together, turned to each other and said, "this man will be president." I cannot go back to that moment, but slowly, bit by bit, I'm getting there.

All I have left to say is:

Thank you, Chris.
Indira

The Math of John McCain

The Republicans have had 32 primaries and caucuses.
Of these, John McCain has won 13
Of these 5 have been in 2004 "Red States" (Arizona, Oklahoma, Missouri, Florida, South Carolina)

This means 38% of the states that John McCain won in the primaries, thus far, are in previous Republican states.

I wouldn't bank on Florida though, I'll give it to him he may pull New Hampshire away from the Dems. But let's be nice

Of the 32 states that have held primaries and caucuses, 20 were Red in 2004

John McCain has won just 5 of the 20 or 25%

Of the 12 states he has won, there would be a hypothetical 225 electoral votes.

Of these 216, 63 come from 2004 Reds, 29%

Now, I'm not saying other Red States aren't going to fall in line behind McCain, but I think this makes it pretty clear why Republican leaders have reason to worry. In all truth, McCain has proven not to be the representative candidate for the party base in states which they can win. (Sorry, Reps, you're probably not getting New York, California, and Illinois.)

Primary Predictions

Woah, way to go super tuesday. That was a wild ride.

I've got lots of things to say on the subject, I'll post this weekend about anything and everything I thought about the big night. Results, punditry, my students' responses. Everything.

But right now I want to make a prediction about what's going to happen next. There are a lot of conditions first.

So for the Dems

Both candidates make it to March 4th. That's the next magic date.
Delegates remain fairly split down the middle.

February 12th is Virginia. On March 4th there are primaries in Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas and Vermont. April 22nd is Pennsylvania.

Howard Dean rounds Clinton and Obama at this point

Case #1 Same candidate wins Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania

If one candidate wins both Ohio and Texas, they will be the top of the ticket. The other candidate gets the VP slot.

Nothing is announced until after Pennsylvania on April 22nd. I am fairly sure if the same person takes both Texas and Ohio, they will also win Pennsylvania.

If this is true, the next day the loser concedes. They have the VP slot.


Case #2 Ohio and Texas split

If same candidate has one either Ohio or Texas and also both Pennsylvania and Virginia


Case #3 Ohio and Texas go to one, Pennsylvania to the other.

If one candidate has Virginia, Ohio and Texas, top of ticket. There is a one week wait before concession occurs.

Case #4 One candidate has Virginia and Texas, the other Ohio and Pennsylvania

Nomination goes to Ohio/Penn

Case #5 One candidate has Texas and Ohio the other Pennsylvania and Virginia *or* One has Texas and Pennsylvania the other Virginia and Ohio

Howard Dean jumps off a cliff

I believe these situations is the only way of getting the "dream ticket." Rather than have to wait all the way till the convention, deals get brokered beforehand. Delegates can't decide this with the proportional rule. I think the outlined plans are the best way for the Dems to save face with everyone and avoid insulting people but still get a nominee at a reasonable time.

Why I love Meet the Press

Why I love Meet the Press:
James Carville and Mary Matalin
Oh my god it does not compute.
And for old people, they're pretty adorable.
They're so strange and this week, Matalin's facial expressions were made of win.

edit:
Also, this is why I'm also in love with Candy Crowley. She writes the *best* posts on the 360 blog.

Am I somehow broken?

I've been asking myself this question for a couple of days now. When I see the media coverage of the primaries I feel so defensive about my continued support of Hillary Clinton. Everyone who is saying that the Clinton tactics are ruining the race and things along those lines just upset me so much. But the thing is, logically, I know they're sort of right. But nothing they have done has made me once feel like I voted for the wrong candidate. I used to believe that the president should inspire and put good people into place who could handle the government. That the president should be able to give good speeches and inspire the nation. I really really used to believe that. But now, Obama is like, the embodiment of the candidate I believed in four years ago when the closest approximation was Howard Dean (who I voted for the the 2004 primary.) Obama is not Dean, I'm not saying that. He's far more inspirational than that. But not once have I wanted to vote for Obama in the primary, even though I know I should have.

It's a very complicated thing to explain. Maybe, I considered, it's because I'm a woman an I identify with her, but I think it's more complicated than that. But it's partially that, I'm sure. But most women, I think aren't as strongly attached to Hillary Clinton as I seem to be.

Then, this morning, I went to Chicagoist and there was this picture. It's from 2001 btw. And I had a really strong emotional reaction to it. Ok, first off, it's a really super cute picture. The filename of it, in fact is "isitokthatithinkthispictureisreallycute.jpg" Ok, but how do I explain *why* I had such a strong emotional reaction to it? After following the source link to HC's website and looking at the other 'family album' photos, there were two other pictures in the set I felt really drawn to. One from Bill and Hillary's wedding, and a photo of her graduating class at Wellesley. (which now that I double check, is in a different album but whatever)

So, ok I went to a women's college too so that's part of the appeal as well.

But I realized, I am emotionally invested in this not because Hillary Clinton is a woman, but because this woman is Hillary Clinton.

I want to be that successful. I'm the type who will do anything to get what I want even if it ultimately makes people dislike me, though I always worry I'm not likable after the fact. I'm the type who will totally engross myself in a topic and want to know everything about it and really want to be totally on top of things. She's so smart and I think that gets in the way of her ability to be 'likable.' I'm the type that would rather have people hate me for my strong opinions than be indifferent because I said nothing. I look at Hillary Clinton and see a prototype of who I could be.

(I'm also far too forgiving of those I've dated/am dating)

I want to have everything, the education, the career, the power, the husband, the family. But I'm also not expecting everything to be perfect. I don't see why I can't be assertive and independent sometimes and rely on someone else at others.

I'm not being particularly eloquent.

I may be one of the few people whose heart says Clinton while my head says Obama.

When I look at Hillary Clinton, she inspires me to be more than who I am now.

Maybe it's because I'm a woman. Maybe it's because of the kind of woman I am.

So of course, right after I post about BJB

Saw him again today. Seriously, I see this guy more often than my roommates. For the sake of convenience, I have now made a map to keep track of the Bicycling Junkie, as he is easily one of the more colorful characters I've encountered living here


View Larger Map

What? A post actually about Germany?

Ok, so about two months ago, when I was still going back and forth from the visa office trying to confirm I could stay in the country, a youngish Turkish man on a bicycle asked me for change to make a phone call. He was on a bike as well and I was waiting for the light to change to cross the street. Being that I'm a nice person, and that if I were ever in a position where I ran out of change and needed to make a phone call, I would want someone to give me a coin, I gave him 50 cents. He thanked me and biked away.

So then, maybe the week before I went home for Christmas the same guy on the bike stops while I'm walking from the school I work at to the main train station to get something to eat. At first, because I wasn't paying much attention, I thought he had recognized me and was thanking me for the change I had given him before. But no, he hadn't and proceeded to ask if I had a 20 cent piece because he needed to go to the locksmith to have a new key made because he had locked himself out of his apartment. I proceeded to pretend I didn't speak German. He kept yelling "Schüsseldienst!" at me and I just smiled dumbly until he biked off.

Finally, last week I see the same guy again, coming under the bridge by the main train station, singing "Ein Stern" at the top of his lungs. Luckily, this time he did not stop.

I've dubbed him the Bicycling Junkie of Bremen. Clearly, he spends all day riding around the streets on his bike asking for money to support some sort of drug habit. I am convinced of this.

Yes, more politics

Ok, so I was on the AC360 blog...I'm not going to lie because I'm waiting for them to release the Beat 360 photo for today because damnit, I can be clever and I want Anderson Cooper to say my name out-loud. And then I would totally make that shit my phone ring tone for all eternity.

Anyway, so there was this article by Randi Kaye about black women in SC and how they are faced with the decision if they vote their race or their gender, which is either a silly question or the question that people just don't want to talk about in those terms because we like to think the political process is at least somewhat issue driven.

But anyway, it occurred to me that I don't think this election would have been as civil as it has been if not for the fact both Hillary Clinton and Obama are running.

So, let me explain what I mean. The Democrats pride themselves on being the party of tolerance, the party that reaches out to all groups, independent of race, class, gender, sexual orientation. They are the party of social diversity, so, it only makes sense that they would run the first serious contenders who are female or black. Now, I believe Clinton and Obama want the same things for the country, but they are fundamentally different in the approaches they say they will take to achieve these goals. There is a difference between the two, so there is a decision to be made among voters. Do you prefer someone who would be very involved in the process and work to encourage people to take part, or someone who wants to be a visionary and inspire people to take part. Policy-wise, they're not terribly different. Last time I checked the main thing was Clinton believes in mandated health care coverage and Obama believes we can achieve it without a mandate.

Ok, so to continue with my point. Two similar, but not identical candidates, both from minority groups that are underrepresented in the government in general, and have never come close to the presidency (sorry Geraldine Ferraro!) But, this essentially allows Clinton and Obama to attack each other more than they would if either one of them was a white male. "But, Indira, you said that this whole situation made the primaries less vicious, how so?" Could you imagine how any comment from a white male would come across attacking either of these candidates? That white male would be labeled racist or sexist instantly, even if they were attacking on legit policy points. The media would then pick up on that and run with it for days and days. They do that now, but imagine that alternate scenario where one of them was not running. It would give the perception of a bloodier campaign than what we have now. Also, supporters of the white male would be given similar labels of being bigoted. Right now, the voters who support Clinton can be commended for voting for a woman. The voters siding with Obama, the same. Even if it splits along racial or gender lines, both sides are showing faith in candidacies that were never before possible. Whatever people's private prejudices are, you can vote for either and come away feeling like a good social liberal.

So, while the candidates have more leeway to tear each other apart, party members have less reason. I think that only in this situation, with both a woman and a black man running for the nomination, could a complete division in the Democratic party be avoided. No matter what the pundits say (and you know I love the pundits, except you, Tucker Carlson) I think that once there is a nominee, those who believe in what the Democrats stand for will rally behind the candidate. Not only because it makes them good social liberals, but because, when it comes right down to it, both are advancing messages we can believe in, hopefully not only as Democrats, but as a nation.

I just want to add something at the end here, for those who do not know about my particular political leanings. I absentee balloted already (since I'm abroad) for Hillary Clinton, but I would be more than happy to vote for Obama in November. I am the only member of my family actually registered as a Democrat, though, and mom can maybe back me up on this, we all lean to the left. While I respect my parents' and brother's decision to remain as registered independents, I do believe very strongly in the ideals of the Democratic party, even as they may falter in practice on occasion. I'm also super excited that it might be cool to call yourself a liberal again in Washington.

For all of you that miss my pretty face