Primary Predictions

Woah, way to go super tuesday. That was a wild ride.

I've got lots of things to say on the subject, I'll post this weekend about anything and everything I thought about the big night. Results, punditry, my students' responses. Everything.

But right now I want to make a prediction about what's going to happen next. There are a lot of conditions first.

So for the Dems

Both candidates make it to March 4th. That's the next magic date.
Delegates remain fairly split down the middle.

February 12th is Virginia. On March 4th there are primaries in Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas and Vermont. April 22nd is Pennsylvania.

Howard Dean rounds Clinton and Obama at this point

Case #1 Same candidate wins Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania

If one candidate wins both Ohio and Texas, they will be the top of the ticket. The other candidate gets the VP slot.

Nothing is announced until after Pennsylvania on April 22nd. I am fairly sure if the same person takes both Texas and Ohio, they will also win Pennsylvania.

If this is true, the next day the loser concedes. They have the VP slot.


Case #2 Ohio and Texas split

If same candidate has one either Ohio or Texas and also both Pennsylvania and Virginia


Case #3 Ohio and Texas go to one, Pennsylvania to the other.

If one candidate has Virginia, Ohio and Texas, top of ticket. There is a one week wait before concession occurs.

Case #4 One candidate has Virginia and Texas, the other Ohio and Pennsylvania

Nomination goes to Ohio/Penn

Case #5 One candidate has Texas and Ohio the other Pennsylvania and Virginia *or* One has Texas and Pennsylvania the other Virginia and Ohio

Howard Dean jumps off a cliff

I believe these situations is the only way of getting the "dream ticket." Rather than have to wait all the way till the convention, deals get brokered beforehand. Delegates can't decide this with the proportional rule. I think the outlined plans are the best way for the Dems to save face with everyone and avoid insulting people but still get a nominee at a reasonable time.